How Does Money Line Betting Work
- A moneyline/win bet is a simple wager on who will win a game, race, match, contest, or a fight. It’s really that simple on the surface. If you’ve bet on a team to win the Super Bowl, you’ve to place a moneyline/win bet. If you’ve bet on a boxer of UFC fighter to win a fight, you’ve placed a moneyline/win bet.
- When you place a money line bet, the only thing you’ll need to do is pick a team that you think is going to win a game outright. If you were to place a money line bet on the aforementioned Packers/Bears game, you would need to place it on either Green Bay or Chicago. You would also need to check out the odds for a moneyline bet before making it.
A moneyline is a type of straight wager where the bettor wagers simply on who will win the contest, straight up – without any spread involved. The easiest way to think of moneyline betting odds is that you are only betting on who wins the game. It does not matter how many points or goals they win by, all that matters is who wins.
Money lines (also called American Odds) are one of the most common ways to bet on sports. They do not use a point spread, and are straight-up bets on who will win the game or event.
To properly explain how to bet the money line, the first thing to understand is the difference between a negative and positive money line. Both money lines use $100 as the basis point for calculating payouts, but they’re calculated differently.
How to Calculate Money Line Payouts
A negative money line is indicated with a ‘-‘ in front of a number, like -230. The number represents the amount of money that would need to be wagered in order to win $100 in profit. So, a -230 money line would require a wager of $230 to win $100 more, for a total payout of $330 ($230 wager + $100 profit). Of course a $230 bet is not required, it’s just the basis for calculating the payout. With odds of -230, a $23 bet would return $10 in profit, or a $2.30 bet would return $1 in profit.
A positive money line is indicated with a ‘+’ in front of a number. In this case, the number represents the amount that would be won from a $100 wager. So, a +170 money line means that a $100 wager would return $170 in profit, for a total payout of $270 ($100 wager + $170 profit = $270). A bet of $10 would result in a $17 profit, and a total payout of $27 ($10 wager + $17 profit = $27).
More About Negative Lines
Generally a negative money line represents the favored team in a match. There are exceptions to this and we’ll discuss that later. For now, think negative money line = favorite.
In most two-team games like football, baseball or soccer, one team will have a negative money line, and the opponent will have a positive money line. The team with a negative money line is the favorite, and the team with the positive money line is the underdog.
Example:
- New England Patriots +140
- Indianapolis Colts -160
In this case, the Colts are the favorite. It would take a bet of $16 to win $10 in profit, for a total payout of $26 ($16 wagered + $10 profit = $26). For the Patriots, as the underdog, it would only take a bet of $10 to win $14 in profit, for a total payout of $24 ($10 wager + $14 profit = $24).
Since the favored team is considered more likely to win, and because no handicap is being used, it takes a larger wager to win a smaller profit on them.
More About Positive Lines
In a 2-team game where one team has a positive money line, they are always the underdog. Since they’re underdogs, it requires a smaller wager to win a larger profit.
Example:
- Pittsburgh Penguins +130
- New York Rangers -150
In this case, a bet of $10 on the Penguins would result in a $13 profit if they win, for a total payout of $23 ($10 wager + $13 profit = $23). For the Rangers, it would take a bet of $15 to win $10 in profit, for a $25 total payout ($15 wager + $10 profit = $25).
Games Where Both Teams Are Negative
In games like baseball or football, it’s not uncommon to see both teams represented with a negative money line. When this happens, it means the teams are very closely matched.
For Example:
- New York Yankees -113
- Boston Red Sox -107
In the scenario above, the game is considered very close, with a slight edge towards the Yankees. It would require a bet of $113 to win $100 on the Yankees, or $107 bet to win $100 on the Red Sox.
Sports With Multiple Teams or Competitors
Of course there are sports with multiple competitors in a single event, like horse racing, Olympic events, and golf. This is also the case in futures bets, where the handicapper is choosing between multiple teams to win a seasonal champion.
In this case, there will generally be one favorite, indicated with a negative money line, and the rest of the field will have positive money lines. Sometimes, when there are no clear favorites, there may not be a single competitor with a negative money line. In this case, the competitor with the lowest positive money line is favored.
Example:
Tiger Woods +600
Phil Mickelson +850
Martin Kaymer +1300
Lee Westwood +1600
Steve Stricker +2300
In this case, Tiger Woods is the favorite, but he has a positive money line. A bet of $10 on him would result in a $60 profit if he wins. A bet of $10 on Steve Stricker would result in a $230 profit if he were to win.
Converting Moneyline Odds to Fractional Odds
We all learned how to do fractions in elementary school, and once you understand money line odds, the conversions are simple.
How to Convert Positive Money Lines to Fractional Odds
To convert a positive money line into fractional odds, divide the number in the money line by 100.
Examples:
- +250 Money Line: 250/100 = 2.5/1 (5/2) Fractional Odds
- +400 Money Line: 400/100 = 4/1 Fractional Odds
- +650 Money Line: 650/100 = 6.5/1 (13/2) Fractional Odds
How to Convert Negative Lines to Fractional Odds
To convert negative money lines to fractional odds, divide the number in the money line by 100. Put that number on the right side of a fraction which begins with ‘1/’. Some numbers on the right side of the fraction will have a decimal in them. Since decimals are not used in fractional odds, they are removed by multiplying both numbers in the fraction by 2.
Examples:
- -200 Money Line: 200/100 = 2. Put the 2 on the right side of a fraction beginning with 1/, resulting in fractional odds of 1/2.
- -350 Money Line: 350/100 = 3.5. Put the 3.5 on the right side of a fraction beginning with 1/, resulting in fractional odds of 1/3.5. Multiply both numbers in the fraction by 2 to remove the decimal = 2/7 fractional odds.
- -650 Money Line: 650/100 = 6.5. Put the 6.5 on the right side of a fraction beginning with 1/, resulting in fractional odds of 1/6.5. Multiply both numbers in the fraction by 2 to remove the decimal = 2/13 fractional odds.
Converting to Decimal Odds
Positive money lines show the profit that would be won from a $100 bet, not including the original wager. Negative money lines show the wager required to win $100 in profit. Neither of these reflect the total payout. This is different in decimal odds.
Using decimal odds, a handicapper can easily calculate their entire payout. For example, a team with decimal odds of 3.0 would be multiplied by the wager amount to calculate the entire payout. A $20 bet with 3.0 decimal odds would pay out a total of $60 ($20 x 3.0 = $60).
The calculation to convert a positive money line to decimal odds is different from the calculation of a negative money line to decimal odds. Here’s how they convert:
How to Convert a Positive Money Line to Decimal Odds
To convert a positive money line to decimal odds, divide the money line by 100, then add 1.
Examples:
- +200 / 100 = 2 + 1 = 3.0 Decimal Odds
- +350 /100 = 3.5 +1 = 4.5 Decimal Odds
- +625 / 100 = 6.25 +1 = 7.25 Decimal Odds
Negative Lines to Decimal Odds
To convert a negative money line to decimal odds, start with the number 100 and divide it by the number in the money line, then add 1.
Examples:
- -200 Money Line: 100 / 200 = .5 +1 = 1.5 Decimal Odds
- -350 Money Line: 100 / 350 = .286 +1 = 1.286 (1.29) Decimal Odds
- -625 Money Line: 100 / 625 = .16 +1 = 1.16 Decimal Odds
Pros & Cons of Money Line Bets
When compared to a point spread, for the underdog, the benefit of a money line bet is the increased odds a handicapper receives. For the favorite, the benefit is that no handicap is given to the underdog, making it more likely their bets will win.
For the underdog, the negative is that they don’t receive a handicap, making it more difficult to win these bets. For the favorite, the negative is that the punter receives lower odds than they do when they’re giving up points on the spread.
Comparing the money line to the run line in baseball or puck line in hockey, the benefit ‘can’ be slightly reduced juice (vig, or commission). For example, many online sportsbooks charge a 5% vig on baseball or hockey money line bets. However, it’s harder to find reduced juice on run lines and puck lines, where punters normally pay 10% vig. Over the course of a season and a lot of bets, 5% can be the difference of being a winning or losing handicapper.
Money lines are the most popular way to bet on MLB baseball and NHL hockey, so the lines can move dramatically from the time they’re posted to the time they close. If you know how to watch lines move and predict where they’re going, money lines can offer a lot of value. For example, when betting on big underdogs in baseball, the best money line odds can often be found as soon as the lines open – before other bettors see the same value you do and bring the odds down. For big favorites, it’s often best to wait until 1-2 hours before game time. For big games with a lot of action, sharp bettors often place big wagers just before a game, which can also create optimal betting opportunities.
For casual bettors, money line bets are easier to make. There is no point spread to mull over, and all that matters is that you choose the winner.
The point spread is such a ubiquitous part of sports gambling that it has become fodder for pundits and fans who would never place a wager. “Notre Dame is giving up 6 points to USC,” someone might say. “I didn’t know that USC was looking that good this year.”
Instead of judging whether they think the numbers are correct or misguided, people are more likely to simply accept what Vegas has to say. The spread becomes just another prediction.
Baseball wagering is unique in that there is no traditional point spread set for a ballgame. Instead, sportsbooks focus on run totals, the run line, and, most commonly, the money line (ML).
When you wager on the ML, you are picking who you think will win the contest outright. It doesn’t matter how many runs a team scores or how many runs they win by, they just need to score more than their opponent.
This, of course, comes with a catch. A sportsbook is not going to give the same odds to win between a division-leading team with their best starter on the mound and a team at the bottom of the division throwing a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher.
How to Read MLB Baseball Money Lines – Basic Explanation & Definition
What oddsmakers do in lieu of the point spread is to weigh the moneyline with heavier odds on the favorite. This is an example of what the numbers on a typical ballgame might look like:
- Texas Rangers (-150)
- Oakland A’s (+130)
The Rangers are projected to prevail. The favorite in the match-up will always be the negative (-) number, while the underdog is always positive (+), just like the numbers work with point spreads.
The easiest way to factor the risk vs reward is in terms of $100. In the example above, the (-150) means that you’d need to risk $150 to win $100 on the Texas Rangers. This means if the Rangers prevail, you will be paid $100 (plus your initial $150 investment), however, if the Rangers lose, you lose $150. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game.
As for the A’s, at (+130), that number tells you that you can risk $100 to win $130 on them. A winning wager on Oakland gives you $130 (plus you’ll get back the $100 you bet), while a losing bet on the A’s would only cost you $100.
Learn About Baseball Line Prices: Dime Line vs 20 Cent Line
In the example above, and at most sportsbooks, you’ll have what is called a 20 cent line. All that this means is that the absolute value of the favorite price is 20 cents more than the underdog price (150 – 130 = 20). With reduced juice or dime line odds, you’ll get a 10 cent difference. On the very same game, a dime line book like 5Dimes would set the prices at -140 and +130 (140 – 130 = 10). This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. More on this to come.
Calculating Probability
When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line.
Convert Money Lines to Percentage
There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative.
Positive
Example: Money Line = +130
Negative
Example: Money Line = -150
How Does Money Line In Betting Work
Understanding Vig/Bookmaker Margin: Calculating the No-Vig Line
The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge.
Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5%; 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point). We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team.
In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair (no vig) market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.
How to Calculate MLB Baseball Moneylines for Betting Risk & Reward
If you aren’t betting exactly $100 per game, it’s easy to calculate your risk/reward by converting MLs to decimals and multiplying those numbers by your wager amount. A couple of examples:
- If the ML is (-134) and you want to wager enough to collect $35 on that team, you must convert the ML to -1.34 and multiply by $35, which equals $46.90; the amount that is needed to risk on a favorite of -(134) to win $35.
- If you’re looking to bet an underdog of (+172) and have $47 available for a wager, then calculate 1.72 x $47 = $80.25, which is the amount you could collect on a (+172) underdog with a $47 bet.
Using Major League Baseball Odds to Your Advantage
The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. For example, if you wager on 100 games with an average line of (-130), you would need to score on 58% (58 of 100) of your bets just to turn a profit, betting $100 per game. You should be paid out $5,800, but lose $5,460 on these bets, giving you a total profit of $340.
Now, looking at a situation where you bet on mostly small underdogs, say an average line of (+115) over 100 bets, you would only need accuracy on about 47% of your picks (47 of 100) to show a profit. You should receive $5,405 in this case while losing $5,300, a profit of $105. Say you can up your winning percentage to 50% at an average money line of (+115). If you are able to do that, you should instead collect $5,750, while losing $5,000, a profit of $750.
Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. But a club that recently won a low-scoring outing as a ‘dog is dangerous and almost never a bad wager. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees.
Underdog Betting Equals Value In MLB Wagers
As you can see, winning bets on underdogs can add up quickly. Sportsbooks are, of course, well aware of this, but because most people lean toward favorites and not underdogs, they don’t really care. Like a grocery store putting its sweet snacks at toddler-eye level, the books know that some people are wise to their strategy – but enough of a % of shoppers won’t be. Don’t be taken advantage of. Take advantage!
There are few sure-fire handicapping systems that lead to sustained profit in any sport. NFL wagering, for instance, can be a supreme challenge due to its volatility and the sheer amount of action leveling out the lines. The NBA can be a bear due to “garbage time” and other factors that affect the Over/Under.
Not to say that a cash player can’t make money over time wagering on those sports, but when you find a system that is proven to work in a sport where lines can’t be adjusted too much (due to being set in the morning and paid off by night), then it’s never a bad idea to learn those tactics – even if you don’t always adhere to them.
What Does Moneyline Mean In Gambling
The numbers above show that if managing to choose your picks on the diamond wisely and take as many high-value underdogs as you can, you will be well on your way to a profitable summer.