Mad Bets: NFL Week 2 Best Bets. September 17, 2020, 12:27 AM. Minty Bets, Jared Quay & Matt Gothard give their best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season. Our experts use multiple algorithms to establish the Best NFL bet of the week for you to win your NFL bet. We stand by this NFL sports betting method. The algorithm takes into account many parameters, including the history of each NFL team, the weather, injuries, referees, starting players, coaches - all of this in order to find out the likely. If one or both of those players are out, I would give pause to betting this spread. Fun fact, per NFL Network’s James Palmer: Tom Brady in his career in Week 2 after a Week 1 loss is 3-0 with.

• Best Week 2 Nfl Bets
• Best Week 2 Nfl Bets Predictions
• Nfl Best Bets Week 2 2019

Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-1 last week, 14-24-1 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (1-2, 27-45-1), Anita Marks (13-4, 60-69-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 12-19), Mike Clay (3-0, 15-10) and Tyler Fulghum (14-8, 46-53-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (4-0, 25-16), Seth Walder (2-3, 42-24) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (4-2, 32-37-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's slate.

Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.

8:20 p.m. ET game

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46)

Fortenbaugh: The Steelers have laid eggs in back-to-back outings despite closing as 10.5-point favorites over Baltimore in Week 12 and 5.5-point favorites over Washington in Week 13. Needless to say, the public is losing faith in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile Josh Allen and the surging Bills have won five of their past six, punctuated by a 34-24 butt-kicking of the 49ers on national television this past Monday night. Needless to say, the public is gaining faith in Buffalo. This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Steelers. Remember, Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS in his past 22 road games as an underdog facing a team with a winning record.

Pick: Steelers +2.5

Fulghum: This line seems like an overreaction to Week 13 outcomes. Listen, we knew the Steelers were eventually going to lose a game and that Washington had the personnel on defense to make life difficult for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It was a classic sandwich-spot letdown between a matchup with the Ravens and this game with the Bills, and the Steelers seemed to lose interest after jumping out to a 14-0 lead.

But Allen will not throw for 375 yards and four TDs against this dynamic Steelers defense like he did against the 49ers. The Steelers (if not the Rams) are the best defense in the NFL, especially against the pass, where they lead the NFL in pressure rate and force QBs to lose their timing or turn the ball over.

Pick: Steelers +2.5

Marks: The Steelers are coming off their first loss and playing their third game in 12 days, and have to be a tired bunch. They are also dealing with a number of injuries on defense and on their offensive line. Meanwhile, the Bills looked great against the 49ers on Monday. Allen completed 80% of his passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns. This is a great spot for the Bills to beat a team they will possibly see again in the postseason.

Pick: Teaser: Bills +3.5 and over 40

1 p.m. ET games

Arizona Cardinals (-2, 45) at New York Giants

Fortenbaugh: Are the Cardinals good? It seemed so when Arizona opened 5-2 both straight up and against the spread, with quarterback Kyler Murray garnering some MVP whispers. But the Cardinals are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their past five games, with the 'Hail Murray' against Buffalo the only thing keeping them from a five-game losing streak. Arizona's defense has surrendered 28 or more points in five of its past six games, so Murray can't bank on the other side of the ball to bail him out. The Giants have held all four opponents to 20 or fewer points during the team's four-game winning streak and now can boast of a defense that is tied for third in the NFL in takeaways, eighth in sacks, ninth in scoring defense and 10th in total defense.

Pick: Giants +2

Marks: Coming off of an impressive victory against the Seahawks, the Giants have now won four straight. Quarterback Colt McCoy was able to manage the game in place of Daniel Jones, but this game will come down to defense. Giants defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has opposing quarterbacks going mad trying to understand his coverage, and Murray will have a difficult time both running and passing the ball.

Pick: Giants +2, Murray under 250.5 passing yards (-115)

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 42.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Schatz: Terrible offenses balanced by terrible defenses. Cincinnati is 29th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) on both sides of the ball. Dallas is 26th on offense and 24th on defense. And these teams still run things surprisingly quickly, both ranking in the top 10 in situation-neutral pace. With two bad teams, it's less likely one team will take a big lead and be able to slow things down. An Andy Dalton-Brandon Allen shootout? It's surprisingly possible.

Pick: Over 42.5

Walder: When I first saw this line I legitimately thought it was a typo. Dallas is favored? I scrambled over to our Football Power Index (FPI) page to see, and sure enough, it agreed with me. FPI is fully aware this is Allen vs. Dalton and not Joe Burrow vs. Dak Prescott, too. While the Bengals are not a good football team, Dallas is terrible, too! The Cowboys rank in the bottom seven in offense, defense and special teams in FPI's predictive ratings. Even if we remove the prior and just look at efficiency -- which is expected points added per play with garbage time down-weighted -- Dallas ranks in the bottom six on both offense and defense. All of this is to say I'll happily take more than a field goal against the Cowboys.

Pick: Bengals +3.5

Marks: The Cowboys' and Bengals' defenses are horrible, and I can see both teams scoring at will. I am certain Dalton will want to ball out against his former team. The Bengals' defense sports just a 17% pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks, so if Dalton can put up over 250 yards against the Ravens, no doubt he can toss 245 against his old squad.

Pick: Teaser: over 32.5 with Falcons-Chargers over 39.5 and Titans-Jaguars over 42.5; Dalton over 244.5 passing yards (-115)

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-3, 45.5)

Schatz: The Panthers have been an average team, not a bad one. They rank 16th in DVOA, in part because they've played the second-toughest schedule in the league. Carolina's offense has risen all the way to 10th in DVOA. Meanwhile, Denver has the worst offense in the league by our numbers, although the Broncos do rise to 31st if you take out that game they played without a quarterback. Consider that offense is more predictive than defense and the gap between these teams just gets bigger.

Pick: Panthers -3

Houston Texans (-1, 45) at Chicago Bears

Bearman: Houston has beaten up on bad teams this season. And guess what? The Texans play a bad team this weekend in the Bears. Since its bye week, Houston has shown improvement, winning three of five, with close losses to Indianapolis and Cleveland. Deshaun Watson has been on fire, averaging 334 passing yards per game, completing over 70% of his passes with six touchdowns and only one pick in the past three games. As for the Bears, 5-1 was a long, long time ago. All five wins were of the one-score variety, and since then the Bears have lost six straight. They've allowed 75 points in the past two games, and their offense is among the worst in the league.

Pick: Texans -1

Fulghum: The Bears are averaging 25.8 points in games started by quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Does that surprise you? Trubisky and the Bears have a juicy matchup again this weekend with a Texans defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories. They're awful.

Meanwhile, the vaunted Bears defense has sprung some leaks in recent weeks, and despite losing wide receiver Will Fuller to season-ending suspension, Watson is still putting up yards and points.

Pick: Over 45

Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5) at Miami Dolphins

Fortenbaugh: Tua Tagovailoa is completing just 63.2% of his passes with a below-average 6.6 yards per attempt average. Translation: This offense lacks pop, as evidenced by the 20 or fewer points Miami has scored in each of its past three outings. The Dolphins are bringing a rock to a bazooka fight and would need a lot more to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs -1 in 6-point teaser with Saints -0.5

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 52.5)

Fortenbaugh: Tom Brady is an incredible 34-12 (73.9%) against the spread when coming off a loss. Now let's turn our focus to the Vikings' defense, which ranks 21st in opponent yards per play, 21st in sacks and 26th in scoring defense. Minnesota's recent 5-1 surge has been impressive, but outside of the win over Green Bay -- which came after a bye week -- Mike Zimmer's crew has beaten Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville (in overtime). And don't forget the horrific loss to Dallas, which occurred during that aforementioned stretch. Tampa Bay off a bye is the way to go here.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5

Kezirian: It's time for the Buccaneers to put up or shut up. They have failed to deliver in some big games this season, losing both meetings with New Orleans and losing at home to the Rams. They lost to Kansas City their most recent time out. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and this is when they need to get things going if they want to make a legitimate playoff run. The Vikings have done a remarkable job to get back in the race, winning five of six, but their defense is still in the bottom third in several key categories. Brady should be able to pick them apart.

Pick: Buccaneers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Packers -1.5, Buccaneers over 29.5

Schatz: How can you bet Kirk Cousins going under his passing yards prop when he has put up 300 yards in each of his past three games? Because those three games were all at home against bottom-10 pass DVOA defenses in Dallas, Carolina and Jacksonville. Tampa Bay, eighth in pass defense DVOA, is a different kettle of fish. Cousins averages only 256 yards passing per game on the season, and Tampa Bay has allowed fewer than 280 passing yards in half of its games this season, with another two games that barely went over at 282 and 284.

Pick: Cousins under 279.5 passing yards (-115)

Fulghum: With a week to recharge and refresh following three losses in four games, I expect Brady and the Bucs to come back and play well down the stretch, starting Sunday with the Vikings. Minnesota can't pressure the quarterback, so Brady should have clean pockets to find his weapons, including Mike Evans, who is averaging 9.7 targets per game over his past three contests.

We know the Bucs are dynamic stopping the run, so this will be a game in which the Vikings have to fade Dalvin Cook and turn to Cousins, who has been surprisingly efficient this season with the addition of rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson to the perimeter.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5, over 52.5, Brady over 2.5 pass TD (+150), Cook under 76.5 rushing yards (-115), Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions (+105), Jefferson over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)

Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 52.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Bearman: The Titans can look great one week and not so great the next, but one thing has stayed consistent: The books can't put the total high enough. Overs are 18-3-1, including 9-2-1 this season, for the Titans in Ryan Tannehill regular-season starts.

The defense can't stop anyone, allowing 390.3 yards per game (25th in the NFL), 274.5 pass yards per game (28th) and 27.2 points per game (25th). They've allowed 31.3 points per game over the past four weeks and have allowed 24-plus points in all but three games this season. Only the Chargers and Cowboys have allowed more points the past four weeks.

Offense hasn't been an issue in Tennessee. The Titans have scored 35-plus points in four games this season (only the Packers have more such games). Derrick Henry has led the fifth-best rushing offense and helped the Titans to 29.9 points per game, third behind the Kansas City and Green Bay. And whom do Tannehill and Henry get this weekend? A Jaguars defense that is dead last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards allowed and 30th in rushing, allowing 137 yards per game on the ground.

If the Titans hit their average, the Jaguars would just need 23 points, well below what the Titans have been allowing. All this adds up to a repeat of Week 2's matchup that Tennessee won 33-30, a healthy 10 points over this week's total.

Pick: Over 52.5

Fulghum: It's a nice bounce-back spot for Henry and the Titans against a soft Jacksonville defense they should have no problem lighting up. Expect Tennessee to ride Henry to an early lead and keep piling on the points.

On the other side, Mike Glennon has been surprisingly capable as the Jags' QB, and the Titans' defense is certainly one we like to target for offensive production.

Pick: Over 52.5, Henry over 22.5 rushing attempts (-120)

Marks: Titans games have averaged the highest points total in the league, and now Tennessee gets a Jaguars defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. Tannehill should dominate against a defense ranked 29th in points allowed. A.J. Brown is dealing with an ankle injury, but I expect Corey Davis to step up against a banged-up Jags secondary. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans put up 40 on their own.

Pick: Teaser: over 42.5 with Cowboys-Bengals over 32.5 and Falcons-Chargers over 39.5; Corey Davis over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)

Best Week 2 Nfl Bets

4 p.m. ET games

Indianapolis Colts (-3, 51.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Fortenbaugh: The Raiders look like they're running out of gas, which is exactly what happened last season -- a 6-4 start, followed by a 1-5 finish. This time it's a 6-3 start that easily could have been followed by a three-game losing streak if since-fired Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams didn't serve last Sunday's game up on a silver platter. Las Vegas is 29th in sacks, 28th in scoring defense, tied for 21st in opponent yards per play and tied for 19th in takeaways, making Sunday's game against Indianapolis an awfully comfortable spot for Philip Rivers. Indy has performed well on the road this season, going 4-2 with a plus-35 point differential. Look for a Colts defense tied for seventh in takeaways and eighth in opponent yards per play to be the difference.

Pick: Colts -3

Marks: If not for a boneheaded defensive call, the Raiders would have lost to the Jets and would be on a three-game skid. Running back Josh Jacobs is dealing with an ankle injury, and the Raiders' offense is not the same without him. T.Y. Hilton has finally come alive in the Colts' past two games, totaling 191 yards and two touchdowns. The Raiders are missing a number of defensive backs, and I expect Rivers to have a monster day.

Pick: Colts -3

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 46.5)

Kezirian: The situation could not be more ideal. The Jets are facing a team with playoff aspirations that just laid an enormous egg. Since 2010 there have been six instances in which a team lost outright as a double-digit favorite and happened to be laying double digits in the next game as well. All six times the favorite covered. I think the Seahawks do that Sunday, and my faith is only increased by the demoralizing nature of the Jets' loss to the Raiders last weekend.

I trust quarterback Russell Wilson to score against a banged-up Jets secondary, so I will protect myself with a bet on the Seahawks' total. However, Seattle has one of the worst pass defenses in the league (although it has improved with the return of Jamal Adams), and the Jets' offense is significantly better with all the wideouts healthy. A play on the first half over is also on my card because I think that provides me more ways to win than lose. Essentially, if the Jets' offense is successful, then the over is my protection because I doubt the Seahawks will have any issues on offense. And there's a chance Seattle just lights up the scoreboard by itself.

Pick: Seahawks -13.5, Seahawks -7 (first half), Seahawks over 30.5, over 23.5 (first half)

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 49.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Fulghum: This line seems like a major overreaction to what happened in Week 13. Yes, the Chargers got blown out by New England 45-0, but that was an outlier performance. The Falcons' defense offers a tremendous opportunity for Justin Herbert and the Chargers to bounce back in a big way. Atlanta is allowing 285.3 passing yards per game (30th in NFL) and has given up 322 rushing yards to QBs (30th in NFL) and six rushing TDs by QBs (32nd in NFL). Wide receiver Keenan Allen should absolutely feast against the woeful Falcons secondary.

Pick: Chargers +2.5, over 49.5, Herbert over 279.5 pass yards (-115), Allen over 70.5 receiving yards (-115)

Walder: Even if wide receiver Julio Jones hadn't missed Wednesday and Thursday's practices with a hamstring injury, I'd still like Calvin Ridley's overs. Ridley is earning 62.6 expected completed air yards per game, almost averaging the line for this prop without any YAC. Of course, Ridley also catches pass at a rate above expectation. The possibility of additional volume from a potential Jones absence only sweetens the deal.

Ridley is also a deep threat. He ranks 15th in depth 3 seconds after the snap and 12th in air yards per target among wide receivers with at least 150 routes run. Ridley is targeted on 24% of his routes, ranking 23rd among the same group.

Pick: Ridley over 63.5 receiving yards (-115), longest reception over 22.5 yards (-120)

Marks: Herbert is looking to redeem himself after an embarrassing performance last weekend against the Patriots. The Falcons might be just what the doctor ordered, with a defense that is allowing 285 passing yards per game. Atlanta is allowing only a little over 3 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but the Falcons are one of the worst at defending backs in the passing game. I expect Austin Ekeler to be a big part of the Chargers' game plan.

Pick: Teaser: over 39.5 with Cowboys-Bengals over 32.5 and Titans-Jags over 42.5; Ekeler over 40.5 receiving yards (-110)

Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 55) at Detroit Lions

Kezirian: Are we giving the Packers enough respect? And Aaron Rodgers feels like an MVP afterthought despite having nearly identical statistics to Patrick Mahomes. The Packers are a premier team now that Mike McCarthy is gone, and I am going to continue to back them against bad teams.

Pick: Buccaneers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Packers -1.5

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 44) at Philadelphia Eagles

Best Week 2 Nfl Bets Predictions

Fortenbaugh: A rookie quarterback making his first start, behind a bad O-line, against a unit that ranks first in total defense, third in sacks, fourth in scoring defense and seventh in takeaways? Sign me up. But first, give me six points to move the line from Saints -6.5 to Saints -.5 and let me tease them with Kansas City. The Chiefs will be taking on a rookie QB themselves in Tua Tagovailoa, who is completing just 63% of his passes and was capable of engineering just one touchdown drive against the lowly Bengals last Sunday.

Pick: Saints -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Chiefs -1

Bearman: Jalen Hurts gets his first start, against the top defense in the league -- first in yards allowed, second against the run, fourth against the pass and second in DVOA. Over the past five games, the Saints' defense has allowed two touchdowns, and one of them was in garbage time last weekend against the Falcons. The Saints' offense is humming along with the return of wide receiver Michael Thomas, who has 22 catches on 29 targets for more than 250 yards in the past three games.

On the other side, the Eagles are a mess, making a QB change to help kick-start the 29th-ranked offense in the league. Hurts looked OK in his first extended playing time last weekend against the Packers, but it was mostly with the game already out of hand. A unit that is last in sacks allowed per pass attempt (11.7%) now faces a Saints front seven that is fourth in the league in that same category, averaging a sack on almost 9% of pass attempts. I expect the Eagles' offense to do better with Hurts, but this isn't a good matchup.

Pick: Saints -6.5, Eagles under 18.5

Marks: The Eagles made the switch from Carson Wentz to Hurts, but this Saints defense will be too much for Hurts to handle. The New Orleans defense has allowed a total of 44 points in its past five games. Not a great welcoming party for a rookie's first start in the NFL. Saints quarterback Taysom Hill and his rushing attack, on the other hand, get a great matchup against an Eagles defense that is weak at linebacker.

Pick: Saints -6.5, Hill over 46.5 rushing yards (-115)

Nfl Best Bets Week 2 2019

Washington at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 43)

Schatz: Washington's pass DVOA has gone from minus-23% before Week 9 to minus-12% since Alex Smith took over under center. San Francisco in the same period, with Nick Mullens at quarterback, has dropped in pass DVOA from 18% to 4%. And the Washington defense (fourth in DVOA) is significantly better than the San Francisco defense (13th). In particular, it will be hard for the 49ers to get their running game going, as Washington ranks seventh in adjusted line yards on defense and San Francisco is just 28th in adjusted line yards on offense.

Pick: Washington +3